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Kosovo
Brief
Ivan
Simic
On
17 February 2008 in South-eastern Europe, the Serbian Southern province of
Kosovo declared independence from Republic of Serbia, and self proclaimed
new Republic of Kosovo. New proclaimed Republic of Kosovo was later
recognized by few sovereign states, but not by the UN. Involvement of the
world's two (the EU and the US) out of five superpowers in this event can
be explained through experimental theory and as a secret plan of the
European Union and the United States.
Experimental
theory: Kosovo, an Ultimate Testing Ground of Giants
Things
have changed in the international system, now we have new superpowers,
superpowers that do not look like anything we saw before. Today,
superpowers, states with leading positions in the international system and
ability to influence events and project power on worldwide scales are: the
European Union, the United States, Russia, China and India. These
superpowers sometimes need a testing ground to show their superiority over
others. These days that testing ground is Kosovo.
The
European Union
Looking
at the current situation in Europe, involvement of the EU can be described
through political and economical perspectives. The European Union as the
most intelligent and the best organized multiethnic Union ever seen in
human history maybe wishes to become the world's hegemon and independent
military force, independent from the US.
There
are a few interesting facts concerning the EU military. In relation to the
EU decisions and plans regarding the military and military defence, it is
possible that the EU members want out of NATO, and a new strong
independent army. NATO was not the European plan, the Western European
Union (WEU) was. The WEU was signed by the Treaty of Brussels in March
1949 between Belgium, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United
Kingdom, however, the US opposed the WEU and soon the North Atlantic
Treaty in April 1949 NATO was established.
The
WEU was aimed primarily at defending against possible German rearmament;
NATO on the other hand was established mainly to defend against the Soviet
Union and Eastern Block. Western Europe at that time needed US support,
since it could not face Soviet Union alone. The true power of WEU was seen
in 1954 when West Germany and Italy joined. Today, the Western European
Union has 10 member countries (the UK, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the
Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal), 6 associate
member countries, 5 observer countries and 7 associate partner countries.
There
are a number of multi-national military and peacekeeping forces within the
EU, which are ultimately under the command of the EU. This future EU army
had few testing's before its final completion, for example through NATO,
EUFOR, EURFOR (SFOR, IFOR, and KFOR), Eurocorps, among others. According
to The Helsinki Headline Goal by the year 2010, the EU will have full
military capabilities in humanitarian and rescue tasks, disarmament
operations, support to third countries in combating terrorism,
peacekeeping tasks and tasks of combat forces in crisis management, and
peacemaking. With this new European army, the 21EU Member States will
possibly suspend their membership in NATO.
In
theory, there are two possible scenarios of the EU involvement in Kosovo
independence: political and economic, any other theories of the EU
honestly supporting separatism (secessionism) are out of place. Currently,
15 EU countries-members are confronted with secessionism, including
Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, and the
UK, among others. Beside the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus which
dispute goes back to 1983, long before formation of the EU, Kosovo is the
new challenge for the EU, especially because it is in Europe, and in
controllable environment.
From
the political side, the EU sees Kosovo's unilateral declaration of
independence as an experiment. This experiment will show to the EU where
it stands, what other superpowers think, how strong they really are on the
international scene, and how they will behave after Kosovo independence.
The EU will learn a lot about independence and will prepare itself for any
possible secessions of any region within the EU. Also this will be a great
opportunity to get more experience for the future army through Eulex (The
European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo - the mission will include
2000 police and judicial personnel, with the cost of 165 million Euros in
the first year)
From
the economic side, Kosovo is very interesting to two great EU members;
Germany and France. They are interested in exploitation of the Kosovo
region, since Kosovo is geologically very rich.
The
United States of America
Many
believe the US was putting pressure on the EU to recognize independent
Kosovo. That is not true, the US was not in the position, and she did not
want to. The US, like the EU does not support secessionism. She and her
neighbouring Canada are also confronted with the same problems among their
own states, for example California and Texas have wanted to become
independent states, and Quebec in Canada.
From
the political side, the US did not get anything from Kosovo independence,
only additional foreign political disputes. Kosovo was likely to show that
the US is still influential in the world, and to test her power on the
international stage and within the UN. Maybe after failure in Iraq, Kosovo
was supposed to help the US to divert international political weight from
Iraq. Furthermore, the US efforts in making Kosovo an independent state
did not change the image which the Muslim and Arab world have over her.
From
the strategic side, the US maybe wants to build a new military base in
Kosovo. Today, she has a large military presence in Europe, including
military bases in Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the UK, the Nederland,
among others, with around 100,000 military personnel. The EU, especially
Germany, Italy (because of WWII and huge military presents for decades),
and Russia will not allow the US to build additional military bases in the
Euro region, and create quad points (the UK, Italy, Germany, and Kosovo).
If European members of NATO suspend their membership and decide that the
US should withdraw her military forces from Europe, the US will be very
vulnerable. However, if the US in that moment looks for an ally in the UK,
the UK as the US biggest ally will turn back on her and closely bond with
the EU.
Looking
from the economic side, the United States will only have additional
expenses over Kosovo. Kosovo is for many years in deficit, and there is
not much that the US can take from Kosovo which Europe does not want.
There
are many speculations around the world and within EU members over the
Kosovo issue. Questions have been asked: Why the EU members have different
positions over this issue? Will Russia intervene and use military force?
What will China do? What about India? Will this give grounds to other
disputed areas to declare independence? These questions and many others
provided reasonable grounds to look for the possible secret plan of the EU
and the US.
The
EU and the US secret plan: False Freedom
The
European Union on 18 February 2008 officially stated that it would 'take
note' of Kosovo's move, but leaves the question of recognition to its
member states. It appears that the EU does not support Kosovo
independence, and that some member states were lobbied by Albanians, and
in addition they recognized independence (Germany, France, Italy, among
others), however, some did not, nor will they recognize Kosovo. When the
EU and EU Member States say that they are friends and wish to have good
diplomatic relations with Serbia, they mean it, but that will be seen
later. So, according to this, some Member States are in favour of
supervised independence, but not for long.
It
is a public secret that the Albanian lobby for years created enormous
pressure on President Bush's administration, through the US politicians
and officials. As a result, they came to the only acceptable solution; to
recognize supervised Kosovo independence in cooperation with the EU, and
get the Albanian lobby off its back. The Republic of Serbia was an ally of
Allies Forces in War World II, on the other side Albania was the puppet
state of Fascist Italy, and Fascist Italy was the ally of Nazi Germany.
The US, by all means, has no intention to spoil her relations with Serbia
over some European province-new Republic which she need to support
financially over the next 20-30 years, when she have solid relations and
investments in Serbia.
Despite
all facts, the European Union and the United States as influential players
in this event know that independent Kosovo does not stand any chance of
survival; it cannot be a member of the EU, the UN, OSCE, IOC, IMF, or any
other vital human organization. The EU and the US Law enforcement
institutions are also familiar with Kosovo-Albanian links with terrorist
organizations (Al Qaeda), paramilitary formations and criminal
organizations. The EU as a multi-ethnic Union recognizes the International
Law and the UN; however, this lobby had to be satisfied.
In
the next two years, Kosovo-Albanians will think that they have succeeded
in their agenda, but they will realise they were wrong. By mid 2010, when
the EU succeeds with The Helsinki Headline Goal, and when new US
administration takes firm control over the United States, they will
announce that various reports have shown that unilaterally declared
Republic of Kosovo under international supervision is not capable of
independence, and that they are recommending that Kosovo Albanians
continue to negotiate their terms with the Republic of Serbia. Also, that
Republic of Kosovo was a mistake, and that Kosovo needs to be a part of
Serbia.
This
should show to the world that secessionism is not easy as many think, and
perhaps reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights and International Law,
as well as in the United Nations.
Both
options are possible, and time will show if they are true or not, however,
with the partial international recognition of Kosovo independence, for one
more time, International Law and the Charter of the United Nations has
been underrated.
Ivan Simic
Belgrade, Serbia
Address:
Paloticeva 12, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia Tel. +381637508500
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